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12/14/09- Coupdoeil Blog
HOLIDAY UPDATE...Most of my activities lately have been centered more around the business that surrounds poker then actual play. I will give u details on this new form of poker growth in blogs to come. My stake w Dr X is going well and i am looking to become a volume grinder for him at the start of the year. Dr X has also built a partnership with the Fish2Shaark team for now and we may even be open to merger discussion at some point in the future.
As we head into the holiday season i work a lil less and try to enjoy CHRISTMAS in NEW YORK....if you have never done Christmas in New York then you have never experienced Christmas in my opinion (atleast not in the cultural sense of the word)
i will take this time to thank all students, friends and business partners that have become a part of my poker and trading businesses this year....do not think for a second i take any of you for granted...as the new year approaches i will be focused on growth, growth and growth!
since i knew this blog would only be a quick update i wrote a poem for ya all...
A POKER PLAYERS CHRISTMAS...
'twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house
there sat a GRINDER that was sesh'ing, shuffl'n his chips and clickin his mouse;
twelve tables were open, total focus playing each hand with great care,
in the hopes that aces or kings would show up here or there;
the 9 to 5 'ers were nestled all snug in their beds,
while visions of middle management danced in their heads;
my girlfriend in her pokerstars t-shirt, understood the game so she didnt mind,
as i settled down for a loooong winter's grind,
when all of the sudden the action picked up-- i made such a clatter,
my girl sprang from the bed to see what was the matter
ALL IN-- a flush draw with a gut shot came in a flash,
pocket kings held up , and my bluff just took down some nice cash!
now its already early morning, the tables were breaking-up and I finally TILTED a decent reg--
as he logged off , he continued his trashed talkin, he knew it best he go to bed--
but i heard him exclaim, as his avatar vanished from sight,
"Merry Christmas to all, ill see you on the tables tomorrow-night"
HAPPY HOLIDAYS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR TO THE ENTIRE FISH2SHAARK COMMUNITY!
11/10/09- Coupdoeil Blog
The world according to COUP on a beautiful autumn day...although im currently working very full time in trading i will only talk about my poker business in todays blog...im actually coaching trading now(not formally) which is fun but i really gotta start a second blog for all that...
GOT STAKE? the last few months ive been doing extensive research on what is the new and upcoming trend in online (and probably offline) poker...and that is staking other players and having percentage of profit deals. Online staking is in it's infancy and i believe within 3-6 years it will be one of the most profitable businesses that surround the poker business itself. After just a few days of research I could quickly see most stakers where running "mickey mouse" operations. What i expected is mostly what i found--operations that benefited the staker and used smoke and mirrors to make it seem as if they are giving the stakee value when infact the stakee ends up with negative EV, assuming he is a solid player to begin with. Like i said i expected to run into plenty of these kind of concerns as i saw very similar smoke and mirror business models in the great DAY TRADING boom of the late 1990s. My due dilligence of the staking industry also uncovered some shocking revelations from the staker's side of the equation as well! Not only did most of their business models not benefit the stakee but they were taking unbelievable risks in more then one aspect-- while assuming they were infact riskless or very low risk (a magician never reveals his tricks so im not gonna tell you what horrible mistakes most models were making, but if your reading this and you want to atleast know what you dont know i recommend any book by NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB). To have fun with a metaphor basically what i was seeing were vampires lookin too suck a lil blood without realizing they will soon be killed by well a STAKE! So far the results of my research--WOW, really? Now let me make it clear the REAL SLIM SHADYS of the staking world will certainly eventually set up killer business models that will bring them in sick revenue while adding value to the stakee but so far from what ive seen the real slim shady has not stood up!
So Xorc1st my business partner and former student suddenly introduces me to Dr X. Dr X is the FIRST staker that not only provides his students with extreme value but his own business model is air tight as far as risk management. He runs a small operation but is running what will eventually be the industry standard--no doubt!!!
So(so many sentences starting w so is that even corrrect grammar)lets take a step back. Coupdoeil is one of the most profitable player at his stake why would he accept a stake anyway? Now this is where i get excited-- i was hitting some poker burnout which my old mentor eric once coined "extended tilt." I have been aware of this so i was looking for something new within poker that would not only be a learning experience but could maybe even provide me with sick positive EV in both the short and long run( a tall order for sure)...and in walks DR X and his business model ...GOT VALUE? here is some i got-- the DEAL itself is sick but i cant give out those details, the site is not known by the majority but has a big following in certain countries and from what ive seen its like a time machine-- poker being played like Chris Moneymaker had just won the WSOP(so sick), and the fun part will be playing poker again without any HUDS or trackers. I think HUDs and trackers are great and almost essential for the beginning to intermediate poker player but i feel to add that extra (essential to the serious practitioner) high level dimensions to ones game playing without a HUD on a long enough time line will infact be MORE positive EV....so y not start now!
DR X is a serious businessman and i look forward to working with him...In summary i got a STAKE that has some real STEAK to it! and to all you grinders on stars dont get too comfy doesnt mean i wont still be comin on there to take my share...
10/31/09- Coupdoeil Blog
THE GOOD , THE BAD AND THE LUCKY...after coming off of a few very solid poker months this one was not the kind i love talking about. TILT def affected my results to some degree and more then one form of tilt was the culprit....(previous months i had a sick balance of poker AND trading AND launching the website)...being a former MEGA tilter i can tell you that TILT is the single biggest leak in the poker world...everyone experiences it in many different ways and it even can put some(actually many) otherwise PROFESSIONAL players out of the game altogether....
SO lets get into the TILT DIFFERENTIAL DIAGNOSTIC department here and see what happened...dr house was not available but four years and millions of hands later i think ive earned my degree...ok so the first problem leading into the month was it looked to be a very good trading environment (which it was) on both a short term intra day and long term positioning (which it was and i traded solid and had nice results )....SO why is this a problem?...if i had come to dr tilt at that point he woulda shutdown poker for the month and id be fine as far as poker pain...dr tilt would know that it would bug me and affect my play to not be playing poker very often when i actually am sitting at the tables (markets were hot, and also i was coaching alot and continue looking into a possible move to vegas). So i only played 10-13k hands for the month which is nothing for me -- as 40-60k hands is more around what a mid level grinder should be doing....its important to be honest with yourself in this game and for me CONTINUITY OF PLAY is so HUGE because without it my entire comfort level changes--...to make a long ugly story SHORT some kinds of tilt i experienced were impatience at the tables, , meta gaming the wrong opponents, getting aggro just for aggros sake, a feeling of poker burnout, not understanding the situation i am in or understanding the situation and not having the discipline to fold...in summary not playing often can lead to EXECUTION errors and how you execute in poker is so important-- i said earlier i hate to admit that if i dont play ALOT that i can run into trouble THIS IS BECAUSE with my 14 years experience in the markets i do NOT need continuity of play to execute properly IN the stock or options market...the big difference here quite simply -- 14 YEARS experience....im only in poker for 4 years as a fulltime player so i think its safe to assume many of the mistakes i made this month will eventually work themselves out of my game...
Tommy Angelo(wrote Elements of Poker and excellent poker psychology book) has a great point which i will paraphrase--he also was a mega tilter at one time -- he tells himself i am a tilter today and i will be a tilter tommorrow and alll i can do is work hard to make tilt as small a part of my game as possible...i love how he doesnt say get it TOTALLY out of my game...so far ive seen 99 percent of the high level pros have some sort of tilt right there on TV....im mentioning the pros here cause mr negraneau was at my table once and i asked him about tilt and he made sure to make it a point that tilt has never been part of his game...i believe its certainly never been a BIG part but there is plenty of footage on him where i think a TILT diagnosis is pretty obvious...of course his counterpoint may be i dont understand what he is doing and what i may be seeing may not be tilt-- i just dont understand his level of thinking...but enough argueing w the gods of tv poker they could certainly kick my ass in poker even on tilt...since i mentioned the TV poker crew i will say there are FOUR players ive NEVER seen TILT(remember this does not mean they dont make mistakes-- they just dont make the kind i would define as tilt!) so i think its possible to have almost zero but remember these are 4 poker players out of how many millions...the fabulous four are andy bloch, chris furguson, tom dwan and phil ivey....probably no accident the first two are the best mathematical poker players in the world and the second two are the best psychological poker player in the world...in a future blog ill go over more specifically the types of tilt--many small ones many players arent even aware of and more importantly how to deal with them and get them out of your game!
Once tilt is in your game its important to point out that you should be MINDFUL of it and quickly WRITE IT OFF as another form of MISTAKE in poker...remember poker is a game of mistakes and you need to make less then your opponents....its ok that TILT in any form occured so long as you can move forward knowing its part of the game and that it was infact a big mistake but the next hand is just the next hand...to GET UPSET about it is actually TILT on top of TILT and this can lead to many dangerous conditions to your poker bankroll
ok so technically i was down in playing poker this month so thats THE BAD part the GOOD part is i had a solid month of trading...ive had many requests for a trading blog so i may start a seperate blog for the fish2shaark community and teach u guys how to crush it in the option markets...and the LUCKY part was my other poker activities actually put me up in poker for the month as well...coaching profits were huge this month as Xorc1st cashed in his percentage after being a killer at the tables the last couple months, i also got deep in several tourneys one beng the sun mil that paid out decently, plus i hit a couple milestone hands on stars where they pay you extra cash for volume...so up for the month in poker over all but UGLY!
AS FOR TONIGHT HAVE AN AWESOME HALLOWEEN...ILL leave u trick or treaters with this..
Darkness falls across the land The midnite hour is close at hand Creatures crawl in search of blood To terrorize y'awl's neighborhood And whosoever shall be found Without the soul for getting down Must stand and face the hounds of hell And rot inside a corpse's shell The foulest stench is in the air The funk of forty thousand years And grizzly ghouls from every tomb Are closing in to seal your doom And though you fight to stay alive Your body starts to shiver For no mere mortal can resist the evil of the thriller!
10/12/09- Coupdoeil Blog
It has been over a week since my last blog...been very busy with a very large position im trading in the markets, working on the re-relaunch of the website as we had some major changes (looks like the initial stages will be very dynamic and we are gonna have to roll w some punches and tweak some things), and actually looking into getting a condo out in VEGAS...baby! (i wil keep ya 'all updated with that).
As for the poker front lines....ive played very little in cash games w blah results...kinda not surprising as i think CONTINUITY OF PLAY is so important in poker ...only reason im not in full grind mode is the many other projects i am working on--for the short term NOT a big deal. One thing i did do to atleast continue my poker education is i started playing some small MTTs and was surprised (well kinda surprised) to find there are many different ways to exploit both the structure and the players at different inflection points in the tourney...i never bought into the "donkament theory" although i understand the frustration of very skilled players feeling their edge is marginalized either by very high blind structures or the 'one bad beat and im out' which comes w the frustration of watching your fish swim away and yada u can do (the fish took the fishing pole wit him)....notice i am okay using the word "bad beat" as far as tourneys, but feel the term is nonexistent in cash games (if u dont already know my theory on THAT look at past blogs or look forward to new ones)--in short poker is NOT one hand and to be honest even in tourneys if u play enough on a long enough time line there is no real "bad beats" either--but it atleast doest hurt my ears when its talked about in tourney terms...as far as results no final tables an nothing huge money wise...in three of four small MTTS 55 buyin i finished around 50th out of average field of 1300...not bad and a tiny sample but its more about what im seeing about the gross mistakes made by MANY of the players even some of the more solid ones at different "levels" of the tourney...i hesitate to define these levels as yet as my experience in tourneys is so tiny... if i continue my studies i will definitely dig deeper into what u do at base camp as opposed to what u do when your near the summit etc etc...i took a shot in the sun mil since the week was about tourney study and ended up finishing around 150th (147 i think to be exact) out of that 7-8k feild...again not a bad performance but for any mountain climber (which is the analogy im gonna stay with when it comes to tournaments) im not going home happy cause i could see the summit but could not reach it...also 150 i dont actually consider deep even though the feild is so big...so as far as results blah but as far as study its been interesting...i hope to someday be able to argue that tournaments are just as DEEP and complex as cash games (given its not an insane turbo structure)....but until then im just a kid hiking thru some mountains with some donkeys here and there carrying my load...
one last note im very impressed with Xorc1sts recent move to both 6 max and 200nl...he still stays at 100nl for his bread and butter but his results all around are quite impressive and im not sure who is teaching who anymore....
9/27/09-Coupdoeil Blog
Its been a solid week of balance for me…for one the fish2shaark team has been working very hard to get the official website launched early this week…amazing how much work it takes but we are lucky to have an excellent IT guy--who also happens to be a poker player….I feel I balanced by grinding a little less and trading more surgically thru a week where much of my focus was on the site launch…so far so good as far as execution and results….had some nice stock market hits-- and I will get more detailed in the future about this market which most poker pros should be studying as its very much the same game with a different name…its Sunday I am chillin watchin football most of the day…as I thought about how well I balanced my week with the three businesses --coaching start up, poker and trading--I realized how important balance is in poker and it is not something to be taken for granted….one should always be evaluating how they are approaching their game… I wrote out my own personal rules with the help of a good friend DR SEUSS(remember these principles appear simple but can be very complex in practice--similar to many of the great Doctors simple yet complex books)...forgive me for the silliness the giants are crushin and ive had a few beers...
MY simple rules of speculation--first rule is total focus and concentration…it is our actions that produce results…not emotional play or chatroom insults…second rule do not play tired…third rule do not play wired!…fourth rule find tables with plenty of fish…adjust to the game and enjoy the dish!….fifth rule analyze your hands after each session…don’t ever let bad decisions or luck lead to depression….we all make mistakes we all have downswings….poker is about the long run not who caught a gutshot or such silly things…sixth rule of poker is to always talk about poker…seventh rule is to always work on your game…eight rule is to realize your opponents may be doing the same….ninth rule have FUN AT THE TABLE!….focus, discipline and composure to keep things stable…tenth rule of poker if you do sit across from ME….I would consider it a sin not to take YOUR MONEY!!!!
ok back to football...next week hopefully another well balanced week
9/16/09- Coupdoeil Blog
WHAT IS A MISTAKE IN POKER? For the purposes of this blog i will be talking about a "bad" BLUFF as a theoretical mistake....First lets start with defining the word bluff--it is taking a "line" that tells a story to induce a FOLD from your opponent when you think or know you do not have the best hand...the definition is not as simple as it appears-- if you decide to become a bluff artist you need to know in what spots to bluff in and you must always make sure your "story" is believable...a lot of players out there are BLUFFING FOR BLUFFINGS SAKE and without knowing it are just overaggressive fish and are making REAL mistakes not THEORETICAL mistakes(so these bluff fish are not part of our equation)...ok now lets skip forward and say our bluff does not work and its a showdown bluff...the table gets to see it!... yikes! a serious student will go over the hand and may come to the conclusion that the bluff was correct in this hypothetical spot and it just did not work OR they feel they did not tell the story correctly and may have told it to the wrong opponent(the non thinking kind) therefore they "should have known better"....... BUT poker is NOT one hand-- it is a series of hands and a series of sessions...if you have a well thought out aggressive style then the theoretical mistake can actually get you much more money in future hands in the session ...or even in future sessions when you take the same line against a thinking player that "has seen this bluff "LINE" before"--only this time of course you got the nuts! so now our theoretical mistake that lets say that had lost us 400 dollars has made us an extra 600 in the session over the next hour and without us even realizing it an extra 1000 over the next week for a net profit on our theoretical mistake of 1200 dollars! Do not misread my argument-- there is definitely value in analyzing poker hands as just ONE hand to keep your game streamlined... however to call any ONE hand in cash poker a definite mistake is simply a mistake!.....poker is not one hand and the benefits or consequences of any theoretical mistake can not really be measured...(warning do not confuse any part of this blog with TILT a very different species of mistake)as for real life poker i basically lived this blog yesterday and at least saw some interesting results in a small sample ...i am happy cause its my first decent eight hour grind in a while...a full days work!
this theoretical mistake concept can be applied to many things conventional wisdom calls a BIG MISTAKE ....i could write a book applying the theoretical mistake concept to the Vietnam War and maybe someday i will... in our personal lives many of our decisions and relationships which we call mistakes may only in fact be theoretical mistakes....i remind you i am not arguing that a mistake cant really be a mistake with only bad consequences--its more that many times its tough to see the benefits that a "mistake" may bring to us in poker or life even if these benefits are hiding in plain site........NOW lets all go hit the tables just make sure not to make any MISTAKES!!!! bwahahahahaha
9/12/09- Coupdoeil Blog
HONEY IM TOO TIRED NOT TONIGHT...lets be honest we've all said it to our girls at one point or another...why do we say it? We are passing up sex! usually something psychological is going on either within the relationship or out of it such as business or any of the many stresses we enjoy in life...so how does this apply to poker? well i think we have to be very aware of our own mindset in a game where if u lose the slightest edge potential profits can quickly become losses...i am mentioning this because in the past i was guilty of playing through times where i just didnt feel IN THE MOOD...and those where my tilting days(although everyone always has a little tilt in their game i mean big tilting days)...these days i have found more discipline so i ended up not grinding all that much this week...i was up a little but basically didnt play too much...there are stresses in my life right now that for some reason or another did not get me in the proper poker mindset and i did well to stay on the sidelines...some people take the approach of having a rigorous schedule and treat poker as a job in terms of hours....i have no problem with this approach it just doesnt work for me and work for how my mind works...i take advantage of the freedom of the cash poker game and always remain very mindful of where i am psychologically(this isnt as easy as it sounds google DBT if u want to really fine tune your awareness of whats going on upstairs)remember first rule of poker is focus focus focus and second rule of poker is focus focus focus...im up an ok amount for the month so far so that kinda helps as well but shouldnt be a factor in the decision to play less or in how i feel about it....SOME GOOD NEWS the site added a couple students and its been alot of fun getting that off the ground this week...so far im impressed with our students passion for the game and their hard work in improving their own games! im looking forward to watching their progress as players!
9/8/09-Coupdoeil Blog
TV POKER....ok guys in general there is alot of trash out there as far a poker on TV...if ur TIVOing ESPN wsop coverage i hope ur also watching shows like im a celebrity throw me in a house or a jungle somewhere...both could have the same positive or negative affect on your poker game...hey why cant their be a positive affect--reality shows are about people(and so is poker) and maybe ur a reality show genius...im not...most poker tv is half reality show and half jerry springer(no offense to springer he is a genius in his own strange way)...where is gary colemans reality show thats what i dont understand!!...anyway im getting lost in reality here...WHY did i bring up poker on TV...cause there is some worth watching and some VERY worth watching...this week is one of those weeks...POKER after DARK(always tought betting in the dark would have been a cooler title) on NBC has TOM DWAN and PHIL IVEY sitting in a 6 handed cash game a MANDATORY HOMEWORK assignment for any serious student of poker...the other mix of high stakes regulars on the show have their own unique styles which should add an interesting dynamic to the dwan/ivey metagames goin on...anytime DWAN or IVEY sit down and u can see their cards in a cash game and how they are played its a serious opportunity ...how deeply u can figure out their thought process in certain hands is up to speculation but this is a MUST watch and always a learning experience for me in the past...as for the poker front lines the post holiday grind has started for me and eric...so keep all hands and feet inside at all times and lets have some fun!
9/6/09- Coupdoeil Blog
i did alot of grindin earlier this week so im mostly just chilllin this labor day weekend like the rest of america...played the fun supernova freeroll yesterday(this tourney has been good to me i think i final tabled it atleast three times last year if not more) and i made it to around the final 50....with a lil over 10 big blinds left with antes i shoved the spaz at table with kj suited out of the small blind...i dont use the word spaz lightly here(he was raising every hand and callin down all ins w 7 highs)... my thinking was this and im not sure it was correct...he raised early which again take my word meant nothin w this guy...told me king high was very likely to be the best hand already and i didnt mind 60 40 spots where most the time im 60...there certainly is the case to be made that i just went thru the blinds and i coulda waited for a better spot...given my usual style when getting deep i 90 percent fold there but w this new very wild new dynamic i guess i felt this could be the 10 percent of the time im more aggrogamble instead of patient...i could write a book on spots where net players think they are desperate and need to aggrogamble and choose bad spots and maybe someday ill write that book...but for today after speaking with eric after my demise in the tourney i decided it was okay-- i had criteria and felt this was the one out of ten times im not so patient...i still feel icky about it to be honest cause its not my usual style in that situation late in a tourney but icky is ok its part of playing poker...oh right the end of the story...the BB autocalled w JJ and my mr spaz autofolded(as expected he had some hand that wasnt worth think about even though we where both short relative to his stack at the time)....jacks held up and i was on my way out to enjoy dinner after discussing the hand w eric online for about twenty minutes...was ready to play the sun mil today and go for the big one but was surprised to see the wcoop had cancelled it out...i may play a wcoop event later but right now im leaning towards watchin movies and chillin...the last week was a fun grind with some interesting hands and sometimes u just like to let them simmer!